How’s this for a “bounce”?

You might be surprised to hear this, but I have at times been accused of “wishful thinking” when it came to my predictions about the Toronto real estate market.  It should definitely not surprise you to hear that I am thoroughly enjoying the satisfaction that comes from being correct about said “wishful thinking”.  To wit, this week’s Market Watch from the Toronto Real Estate Board, in which it was reported that sales volume in September was up 28% year-over-year and the average price was up 10% year-over-year.  Yep, you read that right: ten percent. 

Last October I did a 2008-over-2007 sample analysis of several districts across Toronto.  I found that in most of those districts prices were either flat or up.  Prices were down in only a few.  Basically, by this time last year the market had started to slow, but we hadn’t yet hit the dip in prices that terrified so many people.  Based on that, and a local market that is powering ahead, expect to see bigger percentage gains in the next few months as we see real 2009/2010 gains over slight late-2008/early-2009 declines.  In short, I expect that the trend will appear even more exaggerated over the next few months.   Although it will be a bit of an illusion (things will probably normalize next year), it should be fun to watch!

Naturally, you want to know what this means for you.  If you own a home, it means that it is now officially ‘safe’ for you to put your house on the market.  It’s a seller’s market, period.  Honestly, the market needs more home owners to get off the fence and into this market!  The lack of supply is killing me. 

If you are a buyer, get out there and buy something before prices get too much higher and before interest rates start to creep up.  Go get your mortgage pre-approval (they’ll hold it for 3 or 4 months; call me if you need help with that) and hit the pavement.  Affordability is still great (incomes have improved over the last year, and rates are still relatively very low); you’re not going to ‘miss out’ for life if you don’t buy this week.  However, these rates won’t last forever.  If you are thinking of waiting ‘til next year, reconsider. – SM