It’s been a full year since the global economy nearly collapsed, sending stock and real estate markets into a tailspin. In that time governments, companies, families and individuals have all made changes to how they approach financial decisions and how they plan for their financial future.
Despite conflicting and ever-changing economic news, one thing is certain – any recovery that is being seen in the Canadian economy is minor and tenuous. While real estate in the Toronto area has proven resilient, the same cannot be said of Vancouver, Calgary, or other major real estate areas. Unemployment is high, inflation remains low, all levels of government are running deficits, and consumer spending remains cautious.
In this continuing uncertainty only one thing has remained consistent – record low interest rates. The Canadian federal government has committed to leaving the overnight rate at an historic low of 0.25% until June of 2010, and the resurgent stock market has resulted in low or decreasing bond yields leading to consistently low mortgage rates. These low rates will likely continue for the next six to eighteen months as the Canadian and American economies struggle to regain a sense of confidence and realize consistent and tangible growth.
Record low rates make it an ideal time to enter or move up in the real estate market. The first step for any potential buyer is to get pre-approved by an experienced mortgage specialist. A pre-approval will guarantee a rate for up to 120 days, allowing buyers to take their time shopping, secure in the knowledge that they will not be paying more than a certain amount of interest.
Locking in a low rate does NOT, however, mean locking in for a long term. Only a small portion of homeowners stay in the same property more than three years, and many homeowners who locked in over the previous two years – when rates were at another very low level – ran into expensive penalties trying to modify or break their 5-year terms.
Mortgage products should be tailored to an individual buyer and their resources, needs, long term plans and tolerance for risk. For most homeowners, variable products and shorter terms offer flexibility that allows them to not only pay the least amount of interest possible, but also create more equity while allowing owners to adjust to unforeseen changes, both positive and negative, that can influence where you live, what you can afford, and what you plan to do there. If a homeowner prefers security, they can always pay a premium to lock in for a longer term, but a good mortgage specialist will advise them of both the benefits and the risks that approach can involve.
Ultimately, the best way to take advantage of these record low rates is to get an honest and thorough perspective on your financial situation, then develop a plan that best suits your goals and needs. Don’t simply fall into a long-term mortgage, or spend more than you can afford, because ‘you’ll never have this opportunity again’. Take some time in advance to determine what you can do, why you want to do it, and what it will really cost over the next several years. Yes, rates will go up again, but by how much, or for how long, nobody can say. Take advantage of what you know now to better prepare yourself for when rates do eventually rise, and you will be in the best position possible to make your plans come through! -GS
How’s this for a “bounce”?
October 7, 2009 by Simon
You might be surprised to hear this, but I have at times been accused of “wishful thinking” when it came to my predictions about the Toronto real estate market. It should definitely not surprise you to hear that I am thoroughly enjoying the satisfaction that comes from being correct about said “wishful thinking”. To wit, this week’s Market Watch from the Toronto Real Estate Board, in which it was reported that sales volume in September was up 28% year-over-year and the average price was up 10% year-over-year. Yep, you read that right: ten percent.
Last October I did a 2008-over-2007 sample analysis of several districts across Toronto. I found that in most of those districts prices were either flat or up. Prices were down in only a few. Basically, by this time last year the market had started to slow, but we hadn’t yet hit the dip in prices that terrified so many people. Based on that, and a local market that is powering ahead, expect to see bigger percentage gains in the next few months as we see real 2009/2010 gains over slight late-2008/early-2009 declines. In short, I expect that the trend will appear even more exaggerated over the next few months. Although it will be a bit of an illusion (things will probably normalize next year), it should be fun to watch!
Naturally, you want to know what this means for you. If you own a home, it means that it is now officially ‘safe’ for you to put your house on the market. It’s a seller’s market, period. Honestly, the market needs more home owners to get off the fence and into this market! The lack of supply is killing me.
If you are a buyer, get out there and buy something before prices get too much higher and before interest rates start to creep up. Go get your mortgage pre-approval (they’ll hold it for 3 or 4 months; call me if you need help with that) and hit the pavement. Affordability is still great (incomes have improved over the last year, and rates are still relatively very low); you’re not going to ‘miss out’ for life if you don’t buy this week. However, these rates won’t last forever. If you are thinking of waiting ‘til next year, reconsider. – SM
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